Forecast and Prospect of Foreign Trade in China's Flange Pipe Fitting Industry
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Release time:
2019-09-18
Insufficient driving force for global economic growth
(1) Insufficient driving force for global economic growth
In 2017, the growth momentum brought by the previous round of technological revolution gradually declined, and a new round of technological innovation has not yet formed an effective driving force. The world economy still cannot escape the deep impact of the financial crisis.
One is the insufficient driving force for global economic growth, with increased economic fluctuations in developed economies such as the United States and Europe, a decline in the potential growth capacity of emerging economies, low volatility in commodity prices, and more pessimistic expectations for global economic growth. Major international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have expressed concerns about the world economic growth in 2017 and have lowered their expectations several times.
Secondly, the traditional growth model has weakened its driving force, and the new growth engine is not yet strong. The smooth transition of old and new driving forces faces significant challenges, and the economic driving force is facing a situation of "shortage of resources". At the same time, major international economies have all entered an aging society to varying degrees, with a slowdown in population growth rates and a decrease in the contribution of traditional labor to economic growth.
Thirdly, economic globalization has encountered setbacks, the multilateral trading system has been impacted, and financial risks have not yet been eliminated. According to a WTO report, from October 2015 to May 2016, the average monthly number of new trade restriction measures implemented by G20 economies reached the highest level since WTO monitoring began in 2009.
Fourthly, it is difficult to solve the problems of excessive development of virtual economy, heavy social welfare burden, and hollowing out of industries in developed countries; Some emerging economies and developing countries are facing internal institutional mechanisms and external demand environments that constrain their transformation and upgrading due to a decline in potential growth levels and a single industrial structure.
Fifth, major national elections will increase economic variables, with the 2016 US presidential election and the 2017 elections in France and Germany. Due to the different governing styles and strategies of different leaders, significant changes in the political field will have a significant impact on the economic strategies, systems, policies, and other aspects of relevant countries.
(2) The global trade outlook is worrying
Trade and investment, as important engines of economic growth, are becoming increasingly important. However, in recent years, the global trade and investment situation has been sluggish. The World Trade Organization predicted in September that world trade will be in an exceptionally difficult growth stage in 2016 and 2017, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicted that the global investment growth rate in 2016 will decrease by 10% to 15%. Factors such as weak global economic recovery, sluggish international market demand, frequent "black swan" events, and rampant trade protectionism will suppress the growth of world trade in 2017.
One is the weakening trend of globalization. Due to insufficient demand in the global market, trade protectionism measures are increasing in major developed economies and some developing countries. According to relevant data, from 2008 to May 2016, G20 members adopted a total of 1583 trade restriction measures, of which only about 25% have been lifted so far, with 1196 still in implementation. The G20 Trade and Investment Measures Report released by the World Trade Organization, OECD, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows that the average monthly number of new trade restriction measures adopted by G20 members in the past year has reached the highest level since 2009.
The second is the increasing uncertainty in global trade and investment. The Brexit process from referendum to actual withdrawal may take several years, and the uncertainty it brings remains to be further observed. The Brexit process does not rule out the possibility of unexpected events and may have a significant impact on international market sentiment and expectations, triggering turbulence. At the same time, the frequent terrorist attacks caused by the refugee crisis in Europe have affected the confidence of global consumers and investors, disrupted the normal operation of international trade, investment, and financial markets, and had a negative impact on the future international economy.
(3) The international financial market is facing challenges
At present, risks such as high leverage and high foam in the international financial sector are still gathering, and the financial market is becoming more volatile and unstable.
There are obvious signs of disharmony in the international financial market. The UK referendum decision to leave the EU has had a serious impact on the international financial market, with major world stock indices plummeting by over 5% on the same day; The day after the Brexit referendum, the value of the pound fell by more than 10%, and the London stock market opened with a sharp drop of 8.7%. However, under the strong influence of central banks around the world, the international capital market injected a shot in the arm, and major indices quickly rebounded. The Bank for International Settlements believes that there have been imbalances in the relevant markets, such as the continuous decline in bond yields but the convergence of yield curves, and the increasing dependence of international financial markets on central banks of various countries.
Secondly, global credit is weak. The strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, sluggish emerging markets, and increased financial market uncertainty have hit credit demand. According to data from the Bank for International Settlements, US dollar denominated bank loans to debtors outside the United States have decreased year-on-year, marking the first reduction since the outbreak of the international financial crisis; At the same time, euro loans targeting non eurozone debtors have experienced their first decline since 2014, reflecting a new round of weakness in the eurozone banking industry; US dollar loans targeting emerging markets are also shrinking.
(4) Accelerated adjustment of international rules and standards
After the financial crisis, in order to get rid of their own economic downturn and strengthen their competition and penetration in the international market, international trade rules tend to become fragmented. The achievements of global trade integration marked by international institutions such as the WTO are being eroded, and the future of regional trade organizations such as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is uncertain. The original trade rules represented by the WTO are gradually being broken, and new international trade, investment, and service standards are being established.
This process involves the game and confrontation of major countries in the world, showing a long and repetitive characteristic: on the one hand, developed countries intend to maximize their own economic interests by changing existing international rules, promoting comprehensive upgrading of trade, investment, finance and other standards, and gaining more benefits in the international market; On the other hand, competition among countries has become more intense, and the difficulty of coordinating the interests of all parties has increased. In September 2016, several senior French officials, including President Hollande, announced that they would suspend their authorization of the European Union and unilaterally withdraw from negotiations on the US European Free Trade Agreement. The German Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economy also publicly stated that "the TTIP negotiations have effectively failed". Former US President Trump has proposed to withdraw from the TPP negotiations soon. The reshaping of the international trade and investment system will profoundly affect China's further participation in the globalization process and the future foreign trade environment it faces.
Key words:
negotiations,officials,announced
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